Why we Must Avoid War with Iran

What do the Vietnam War, the Iraq War and the current Afghan War have in common from the American perspective?  In each case it seemed important to commit troops, wage war against a much smaller nation, and ‘fix’ a foreign policy problem.  The cause could have seemed important; the communist dominoes, the weapons of mass destruction, or the elimination of terrorist havens were all deemed important enough to send Americans to die for.  In all cases, out troops were well trained and possessed weaponry that would presumably defeat all enemies.

War doesn’t work the way we have presumed.  In our most recent adventures we have been quick to gain key military objectives, and drive the enemy into a guerrilla, or ‘asymmetric’ fighting position, where they proceed to fight back ad infinum.  We are left with young men and women in harm’s way, without an outcome that could be deemed victory.

Our exit strategy in all three cases I have mentioned has been to leave a trained native army in place to hold up the government we had helped to create.  This led to a disaster in Vietnam, an emerging situation in Iraq that will probably give us ambiguous results at best, and we worry about our Afghan legacy, with hawkish lawmakers saying we need to devote more time and energy to help the Kharzei regime stand on its own.

Now, we contemplate war with Iran.  The cause seems just; a nuclear Iran is a bona fide threat to Israel.  There is pressure to ‘draw a bright red line’ beyond which, Iran will be subject to our military wrath.  Sadly we should know that making ultimatums will simply lead us into another pointless war.  I specifically mean pointless, because a war in Iran will do nothing to secure Israel from attack.  It will delay Iran’s deployment of nuclear weaponry, but it will make worse the visceral hatred that poisons the Middle East, and we will soon fear the same threat from Pakistan or Sudan, or a radicalized Egypt, or any number of other scenarios.

Once in Iran, what would we do?  It is a large country filled with daunting terrain and an enormous populace, and the cost to wage a war there, in blood and dollars, would dwarf the adventures of the past dozen years.  It would most likely require a much larger military, likely from the re-emergence of a draft.  Still, if it would bring peace, shouldn’t we undertake it?  The prospects of peace through war with Iran are purely rhetorical.  There is only one way to avoid catastrophe, and that is via dialogue.

When I resume this discussion (i.e. post back with your thoughts), I want to tie up a few loose ends on the prospects of war in Iran, such as surgical strike, and ‘no-fly’ strategies, and then talk about the basis for a dialogue, cutting through the clutter, and getting toward some understanding that will benefit not only Iran and the US, but Israel, the Palestinians, and Syria.  It’s good to be writing again!